According to foreign news on December 17, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) stated in its monthly outlook report that global primary aluminum demand will continue to grow from 2024 to 2026, but global supply will also continue to grow in the face of the share of scrap metal demand.
Aluminum Demand
We expect global primary aluminum demand to grow by 2.5% in 2024, 2.6% in 2025 and 2% in 2026. One of the biggest threats to primary aluminum demand during the forecast period is that a larger share of scrap metal accounts for more than 2% growth rates.
Aluminum Supply
We expect production to exceed 70 million tons for the first time this year, that is, 72.3 million tons in 2024, 73.2 million tons in 2025, and 74 million tons in 2026. We have revised our 2024 Chinese production forecast, adjusted for year-to-date growth, while reducing our Russian production forecasts for 2025 and 2026.
We have not factored in additional production disruptions from raw material supply issues, but acknowledge that some high-cost smelters may decide to reduce production and choose to sell alumina supply contracts into the open market.
